Solving Problems Before They Happen
Imagine standing by a river and seeing a child drowning. You jump in to save them, but then another appears, and another. Eventually, you realize you must go upstream to stop whoever is throwing the children in. This is the core of upstream thinking: while downstream actions react to problems that have already occurred, upstream efforts aim to prevent them from happening in the first place.
In 2012, the travel website Expedia noticed that for every 100 customers who booked travel, 58 called for help afterward. The top reason was simply to get a copy of their itinerary. The company was spending $100 million a year on 20 million calls for a task that should have been automated. While their support teams excelled at handling calls quickly, no one was tasked with making sure the calls never happened.
Most organizations are built with narrow focus, dividing work into specialized groups. This creates efficiency but discourages prevention. At Expedia, the product team focused on maximizing bookings, while the support team focused on call speed. Neither was rewarded for reducing the need for support, creating a cycle of response where we spend our time putting out fires instead of fixing the systems that cause them.
We often favor reaction because it is tangible. A police officer who writes a stack of tickets has physical proof of their work; an officer who stands on a corner to prevent accidents has no way to prove what did not happen. Upstream victories are often invisible because they are stories written in data. We see numbers decline on a page rather than witnessing a dramatic rescue, which makes it harder to justify the effort.
Moving upstream requires systems thinking. It means looking at a problem like burglary and realizing that prevention could start decades earlier, involving not just better security systems but also improving the environment for at-risk families. While these solutions are more desirable, they are also more complex, involving long timelines and the risk of unintended consequences, such as when a driving ban in Mexico City led people to buy more high-pollution cars to bypass the rules.
The American health care system functions like a massive "undo" button. It is world-class at treating diseases but struggles with keeping people healthy. In contrast, countries like Norway spend significantly more on social care, such as prenatal visits and paid leave. While both nations spend similar amounts on health overall, Norway’s focus on prevention leads to better outcomes in life expectancy and infant mortality. Shifting our energy upstream is a declaration of agency—the belief that we can shape our world rather than being at its mercy.
Full summary available in the Readsome app
