Determined

The Chain of Causes That Determines Behavior

An old story tells of a woman who claimed the world rests on the back of a giant turtle. When asked what the turtle stands on, she replied it was another turtle, and so on—turtles all the way down. This anecdote illustrates a profound truth about human behavior. While we find an infinite line of turtles ridiculous, we readily accept the idea of a "floating turtle"—a moment of pure, uncaused choice—existing somewhere in our biology. In reality, every human action is the result of an infinite chain of prior causes, a seamless web of causality with no crack of daylight for free will to enter.

Consider a scene at an airfield where a civilian shoots a military man. We instinctively focus on the shooter's intent in the final moments, but this narrow view ignores the vast history that made the act inevitable. Scientific experiments reveal how deceptive this sense of intent can be. When people are asked to push a button at will, their brain begins preparing for the movement hundreds of milliseconds before they are aware of their decision. Advanced brain imaging can predict which button a person will press up to ten seconds before they consciously "choose." Our feeling of agency is often a delayed report on a biological process that has already begun.

This causal chain is not confined to the seconds before an action. Our immediate environment constantly nudges us; a foul smell can make us more judgmental, while a warm drink can make us more trusting, as the brain’s insula uses the same hardware for literal and moral disgust. Over minutes and hours, hormones act as silent puppeteers. Testosterone doesn’t create aggression but amplifies preexisting tendencies, while oxytocin promotes kindness toward our "in-group" and hostility toward outsiders. Our brains are also physically reshaped over years by chronic stress, stimulating work, or even the bacteria in our gut. We navigate the world with a brain structurally altered by factors outside our control.

The construction of this brain stretches back to adolescence and childhood. The prefrontal cortex—the brain's "brakes"—is the last part to mature, allowing our teenage environment to shape our most complex decision-making skills. The luck of our childhood, measured by "Adverse Childhood Experience" scores, sets a trajectory that is difficult to change, as early stress can lead to a lifetime of difficulty with impulse control. Before birth, the womb environment regulated our genes, and even the cultures of our ancestors, molded by centuries of ecology, dictate how we respond to social cues today.

We often draw a sharp line between innate traits and personal effort, creating a myth of "grit" where character can override biology. In reality, the capacity for self-discipline is just as biological as eye color. The prefrontal cortex, the center of willpower, is a physical organ that requires massive amounts of energy. When we are tired, hungry, or stressed, our willpower physically depletes. This is why judges are significantly less likely to grant parole right before lunch than after a meal; a hungry brain defaults to the easiest decision. The idea that we can "will" ourselves to have more willpower is a biological impossibility. Every instance of self-control is the end product of a seamless chain of biology and experience.

If every aspect of a person’s character is the result of biological and environmental luck, then concepts like blame, praise, and retribution lose their foundation. We do not hate a tornado for leveling a house, nor do we praise a lilac for its scent. Similarly, punishing a criminal for retribution makes as little sense as blaming a car for having faulty brakes. Consider a university graduation: if you could magically swap the genes, fetal environments, and upbringings of the student receiving a degree and the groundskeeper emptying the trash, their positions would be reversed. They are simply the end products of different deterministic paths. Recognizing this requires a radical shift away from judgment and toward understanding.